If you’ve been watching the market closely, you’re not alone. Canada’s housing market ended 2025 on a softer note, with home sales and prices slipping in December as buyers and sellers navigated uncertainty around the economy, jobs, and interest rates.
For Alberta buyers and homeowners, this creates an important question:
Does a slower market mean a better time to buy, renew, or refinance?
In many cases, the answer is yes, as long as you have the right mortgage plan.
As an Alberta mortgage broker, I’m breaking down the key highlights from the latest CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) housing data, and what it means specifically for Alberta mortgages and Lethbridge mortgages going into 2026.
Canadian Home Sales Fell in December 2025 (But Spring Could Rebound)
According to CREA, home sales across Canadian MLS® systems dropped 2.7% month-over-month in December. For the full year, national transactions ended at 470,314 homes sold, which is down 1.9% compared to 2024.
Even with a series of Bank of Canada rate cuts throughout 2025, many buyers stayed cautious.
CREA’s Senior Economist noted the decline wasn’t driven by one clear nationwide issue, but rather a slowdown in several major markets like Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal.
The bigger takeaway for buyers:
Don’t assume December trends will continue into 2026
Winter often creates a “pause” in real estate activity. Historically, spring demand tends to pick up quickly, and CREA expects sales to rise again as the market moves toward the busier season.
New Listings Dropped Again: Supply Is Still Tight in Many Areas
The market also saw new listings decline 2% month-over-month in December, marking the fourth straight monthly drop.
Canada’s national sales-to-new-listings ratio landed at 52.3%, which is close to the long-term average and generally considered a balanced market.
At the end of December 2025:
- 133,495 properties were listed across Canada
- Active listings were up 7.4% year-over-year
- Inventory levels were still below long-term averages
Months of Inventory: Still Not a Buyer’s Market
Nationally, Canada sits at about 4.5 months of inventory, which is slightly below the long-term average of 5 months.
For context:
- Below ~3.6 months = seller’s market
- Above ~6.4 months = buyer’s market
That means overall conditions are still relatively balanced, but you may see pockets of opportunity for buyers depending on the city and price range.
Home Prices Drifted Lower (Even With Falling Rates)
Canada’s MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) slipped again in December:
- Down 0.3% from November to December
- Down 4% year-over-year
Some of the biggest price softness was seen in Ontario markets, while many other regions remain much more stable.
This part matters for Alberta:
Price declines + lower rates can create a rare “window” of affordability
When prices soften even slightly, buyers can sometimes qualify more easily and have more negotiating power, especially if they secure a strong mortgage approval early.
What This Means for Alberta Mortgages (And Lethbridge Buyers)
National headlines don’t always reflect what happens locally. Alberta’s market often behaves differently than Ontario and BC, especially when it comes to affordability, rental demand, and inventory.
Here’s how this market update may impact Alberta mortgages and specifically Lethbridge mortgages going into 2026:
1) More Negotiating Room for Buyers
In slower months, sellers are often more open to:
- price reductions
- repair requests
- flexible possession dates
- stronger terms in the offer
If you’re buying in Lethbridge, Coaldale, Coalhurst, Taber, or surrounding areas, you may benefit from less competition compared to peak spring/summer conditions.
2) Pre-Approvals Matter More Than Ever
With uncertainty still present, your best move is to get fully pre-approved before shopping.
A proper pre-approval helps you:
- lock in a rate (when available)
- confirm your maximum purchase price
- build a down payment plan
- avoid surprises with debt ratios or lender rules
Even small improvements (paying off debt, reducing credit card balances, adjusting your down payment structure) can boost your approval amount more than most people expect.
3) Renewals and Refinances Will Be Huge in 2026
One of the biggest themes for 2026 is the volume of borrowers coming up for renewal and refinance.
Many Canadians who locked in ultra-low rates in 2020–2022 will be renewing into much higher rates today, which can increase monthly payments.
That affects:
- affordability for move-up buyers
- household budgets
- qualifying power on new purchases
If you’re renewing soon, the biggest mistake is waiting until the last minute.
Should You Buy a Home in Alberta in 2026?
For many buyers, 2026 could be a great year to buy in Alberta, especially if:
- you want stable monthly payments
- you’re trying to enter the market before spring competition increases
- you want access to better inventory while prices are reasonable
That said, the “best” time depends on your personal numbers.
A good mortgage plan includes:
- down payment strategy (5% vs 10% vs 20%)
- choosing the right term (3-year fixed vs 5-year fixed vs variable)
- understanding closing costs
- ensuring your financing is solid before you waive conditions
Frequently Asked Questions (Alberta & Lethbridge Mortgages)
Is the Alberta housing market slowing down?
Some pockets are cooling seasonally, but Alberta tends to stay more balanced than many Canadian markets because affordability remains stronger.
Will mortgage rates drop more in 2026?
Rates can change quickly. The key is having a plan and choosing a mortgage that fits your timeline and risk tolerance (fixed vs variable).
Is it better to get pre-approved now or wait until spring?
Getting pre-approved early usually gives you the advantage. You’ll know your budget, strengthen your offer, and avoid rushing when the spring market heats up.
Can I buy a home in Lethbridge with 5% down?
Yes, in many cases you can buy with 5% down, depending on the purchase price and your qualification.
Bottom Line: Winter Slowed Down, But Opportunity Is Building
December capped off a slower year nationally, with sales and prices trending slightly downward as uncertainty continued.
But as we move closer to spring, many experts expect demand to pick back up, especially with pent-up first-time buyer demand and interest rates that may already be close to the “best we’ll get” in the near term.
If you’re planning to buy, renew, or refinance in Alberta, the smartest move is to get your mortgage plan in place now, before competition ramps up.
Need a Mortgage Plan for Alberta or Lethbridge?
If you’re looking for help with a purchase, renewal, refinance, or pre-approval, I’m happy to walk you through your options.
Dillan Kelly
Mortgage Broker, Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Excellence
📞 403-894-5818
🌐 dkmortgageteam.ca
Send me a text any time and I’ll help you map out the best next step.
Source: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres (Economic Insights) – “Canadian Existing Home Sales Fell Again in December” (January 2026).
